Analysis on the Advantages and Disadvantages of the Development of China's Heavy Truck Market in 2015


In 2015, the heavy-duty truck market will still be difficult to recover. In the next few years, the heavy-duty truck industry will maintain stable and low-speed growth, and the towing vehicle market will continue to be favored. High-power, large-displacement, lightweight tractors are still welcomed by the market. High-tech, High value-added tractors will gradually become mainstream.

 


The main factors affecting the medium and heavy truck industry are:

First, favorable factors

1. A large number of railway, highway and infrastructure construction projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission at the end of 2014 provide certain guarantees for infrastructure investment and downstream heavy truck demand in 2015.

2. The greatest benefit of infrastructure construction is the "One Belt and One Road";

The “One Belt and One Road” is the world’s most economic belt with development potential. In 2015, relevant infrastructure construction will enter into the substantive implementation stage.

3. In addition to the constant increase and construction of the Free Trade Zone, in addition to the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, the second batch of free trade zones in Guangdong, Tianjin, and Fujian, and the third batch of free trade parks have started preparations for the declaration, and are currently located in Wuhan, in the Midwest. Xi'an, Chongqing, Chengdu and Lanzhou are all actively seeking to enter the ranks of the third batch of free trade zones. The gradual increase of the free trade zone will make great progress in the foreign trade and logistics industries in these regions, and will gradually benefit the heavy truck and tractor industry.

4. Integration of key urban agglomerations, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei; Major urban agglomerations and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei integration include major mineral provinces and logistics provinces, where heavy trucks will still maintain rigid demand.

5. Rapid development of logistics and suspension; In 2014, China's "Mid-term and long-term development plan for logistics industry" was promulgated, and logistics transportation will continue to maintain rapid growth in the future. As more and more favorable policies will continue to develop, suspension and transportation will continue to develop. Both are good for the tractor industry.

6. The phase-out and renewal of yellow-standard vehicles will be a major highlight in 2015, which will have a positive driving effect on the segmented markets such as muck trucks and port tractors.

Second, unfavorable factors

1. The macro economy is in a sluggish state, and several agencies predict that China's GDP growth rate in 2015 will be 7%.

2. The prospects of the real estate industry are difficult to predict; after experiencing the downturn in 2014, it is expected that the real estate industry will be difficult to recover quickly in the short term, which is not conducive to the heavy truck industry to some extent.

3. Coal production declined; coal production in many provinces declined in 2014, and provinces have already determined that coal production will be cut in 2015, and the demand for heavy trucks will decrease.

4. Gas and oil prices are not stable. Despite the drop in oil prices in 2014, the future price instability factors still exist, and the heavy truck market has always been affected to some extent.

5. The national IV emission standard is implemented nationwide.

To sum up, in 2015, medium- and heavy-duty truck companies must seize a few key words—emissions upgrading, logistics vehicles, high-powered, lightweight, intelligent, platform resource integration; Standard car management, industry specification upgrade, logistics planning, land and sea silk roads, integration, and urban agglomeration.

Based on the above analysis, the Land Alliance has recommended medium- and heavy-duty truck companies to: Digest inventory as quickly as possible, change old marketing models, focus on improving service quality, carry out technology upgrades, follow up changes in the market, accelerate the layout of key regions, and seize market opportunities.

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