International Phosphate Fertilizer Market Enters "Circulation Circle"

June 26, 2018

Since last year's financial crisis, the international phosphate fertilizer market has continued to “slump,” and has fallen into a cycle of “demand is light – prices are falling – demand is lighter – prices continue to fall”. Prior to the limited production of phosphate fertilizer companies and the relatively strong demand from India, the circulation rate of this cycle has been relatively slow. However, in the light of the increasingly light demand, the cycle speed of this cycle has accelerated, which also means that the international phosphate fertilizer. The market will fall into a more boring situation. ?

Due to the high fertilizer subsidy policy, the Indian fertilizer market became a “pure land” that was less affected by the financial crisis, which also made the relatively strong demand for phosphate fertilizers in India the only support in the international market for a long period of time. It is clear that India’s demand cannot save the current international market. Even when signing large-scale annual contracts, the price of international phosphate fertilizer has still not rebounded, but it has slowed down the price decline to some extent. However, the recent changes in the Indian market are no exception to the international phosphate fertilizer market. Due to the fall in prices, India has purchased a large amount of phosphate and phosphoric acid, which has directly led to a significant increase in the production of diammonium phosphate in India. It is reported that India's output of DAP reached 2.66 million tons in March 2009, an increase of 42% over the same period of last year. According to industry analysts, if India's local diammonium production continues to grow, India is likely to reduce the amount of diammonium imported in the second half of 2009, which is a big negative for the international market for phosphate fertilizers that is caught up in the “quagmire”. In particular, some importers of phosphate fertilizers, when the original stocks are relatively abundant, they expect the price of phosphate fertilizers to decline again after Chinese products are brought back to the market. ?

Due to the lack of demand in the domestic market and the low demand for international phosphate fertilizers, even the production enterprises that cut production “alliance” will inevitably compete with each other in this limited market, making the prices all the way down. At the end of April, the price of tampa monophosphate dropped from 380/ton (fob) in March to 320/ton (fob). Market news said that the price will drop to 300/ton (fob) in a few weeks. The OCP in Morocco and the GCT in Tunisia both expect that the trade price of diammonium will reach 350/ton (fob) in May. The signing is that the demand in Latin America and Europe is currently not high, and the offshore price may fall to 300-350/ton (fob). ?