Life is no longer subsidized under 150km! What are the hidden messages behind the National Supplementary New Deal?

On June 12, the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China combined with three ministries and commissions to issue the Circular on Adjusting and Perfecting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Popularization and Application of New Energy Vehicles, which is commonly known as the “National Supplementary New Deal.” The New Deal clearly defined the mileage subsidy standard for new energy passenger vehicles, and Subsidy standards for battery mass density and energy consumption level coefficient; among them, new energy passenger vehicles with a cruising range of up to 150 km no longer enjoy subsidies, new energy passenger vehicles with a cruising range of 300 km or more are subject to a corresponding increase in subsidies, and reduced plug-in mixing The amount of subsidy for the powered model.

What kind of information will the New Deal send? Before this, it is expected that the news of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be completely eliminated by 2020, and what changes will be made to the new energy market in the future? Will new energy vehicles be affected by policies and prices or slow sales?

The national government supplements the New Deal to promote the market "survival of the fittest," prompting auto companies to increase their level of research and development

From the previous subsidy policy for new energy passenger cars, we can see that any vehicle that has a cruising range of 100km “threshold” can receive state subsidies. The “threshold” of 100km is easy to implement for some “old generation scooter” models. The goal is that these vehicle manufacturers do not qualify for vehicle production; as a result, many companies that have “qualified” to produce entire vehicles are springing up to the “big cake” of new energy vehicles as long as they can produce. New energy models that reach the “threshold” will be able to share the “cake”; the original intention of the original policy is to allow the public to better accept new energy models, popularize new energy models, and set the “threshold” low. Some car companies know how to "get rid of the loopholes and cleverness" and make the subsidy policy go sour.

(Old age car)

Blindly relying on subsidies to implement new energy vehicles is not a long-term plan, and it is fundamental to promote market self-regulation; the New Deal raised the original subsidy threshold of 100 km to 150 km, canceled the subsidy for vehicles with a cruising range of 150 km or less, and used a cruising range of 300 km. Divided, low cruising mileage of 300km or less new energy models will be reduced subsidies, high cruising range of more than 300km new energy models to increase subsidies accordingly, where the cruising mileage refers to the vehicle-mounted power as a power, pure electric vehicles driven by motor-driven wheels This is the EV model, while the subsidy for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which is a transitional property, has been lowered by 2,000 yuan.

The cruising range is a technical barrier that is difficult for a purely electric vehicle to overcome. As the model Tetra of the pure electric vehicle, the cruising range of the Ministry of Industry and Information only reaches 579km, while the battery life of a self-owned brand electric vehicle in China is only less than 450km. 450km models; the New Deal's maximum subsidy file will set the cruising range at more than 400km. It hopes to promote the development of new energy vehicle manufacturers to high-tech and high-end life; only by increasing the cruising range of pure electric vehicles is it possible to replace traditional fuel power.

(Tesla Model X)

After the subsidy period, the price of the model may rise in the short term, which is more conducive to market development in the long term.

Earlier, there was a voice pointing out that China’s 2020 may completely abolish the subsidy policy for new energy passenger vehicles; in the post-subsidy era, new energy vehicle prices may experience larger fluctuations in the short term, but in the long term To facilitate the healthy development of the market and enterprises, the price of new energy vehicles will fall back to the market acceptance level in the long term, mainly due to five factors:

First, at the national level, strategic factors for alternative energy sources mentioned in the national new energy industry revitalization and development plan will fully support the development of new energy automotive industry.

The second is the implementation of policies. The government will adjust policy guidelines according to market development conditions in different periods to ensure the healthy and orderly development of the new energy automobile market.

Thirdly, the competition among enterprises has led to a drop in prices. As more and more new vehicle manufacturers infiltrate into market competition, as well as R&D technology and manufacturing costs, the future price of new energy vehicles will be the same as that of fuel vehicles, even compared to fuel vehicles. Cheaper, at least for the moment, this point has been achieved by car companies.

Fourth, the dual-integration policy led the dual-integration policy to better promote the development of new energy vehicles. The more new energy vehicles produced by the company, the higher the points, the better for the enterprise; the less new energy vehicles the company produces. The lower the points, the negative points, the companies will be affected, and they may even be shut down directly.

(Borui GE new energy prices and fuel version of the flat or even lower)

Therefore, even if the new energy subsidy policy is completely abolished in 2020, car companies will adjust their cost control, technological innovation, management system, and business model to adapt to changes in policies and markets, and eliminate long-term subsidies for car companies and markets. The impact will not be too great.

New energy vehicles are not affected by the policy and market demand remains strong

The “National Supplement New Deal” has been proposed since February of this year. This year, from February 12 to June 11, is the transitional period. During this period, the subsidy amount will be 0.7 times that of the old subsidy policy. In the first five months of this year, China’s new energy vehicles will be implemented. Production and sales increased by 122.9% and 141.6% year-on-year, of which, production and sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 105.1% and 124.7% year-on-year, respectively, and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles increased by 207.3% and 218.4% year-on-year respectively.

The new energy vehicles did not result in sales volume reduction or slow sales due to the small amount of subsidies. The main reason for this is that they are affected by the limited-limit licensing policies of some cities in China; data indicate that Beijing’s individual new energy minibus configuration indicators and applications have not been affected. Confirmed that the extension period reached 289,377, queued up to 2023; and the Shenzhen Municipal Government will also be on August 1 this year will be a new registration of non-pure electric vehicles as an online booking taxi, and is expected to be registered non-pure electric network about The car will withdraw from the market in 2020; Guangzhou will also cancel the subsidy for energy-saving vehicles and implement the “Four-Four-Four-Four-Stop” line-limit policy starting next month. From the market’s strong demand for new energy vehicles and the vigorous implementation of new energy vehicles by local governments, Even if the amount of national compensation is further lowered, it will not have much impact on the new energy vehicle market.

(BYD Qin EV450)

In addition to the limited-limit licensing policy, another reason for the subsidy reduction in the sales of new energy vehicles is likely to be driven by the sharing of automobiles. As of May this year, there were 19 large-scale shared auto companies across the country. Both second- and third-tier cities provide shared car travel services. Most of these models are based on pure electric vehicles. The number of models that a single company has deployed in one city has reached more than 1,000 vehicles. The overall number suggests that shared car companies have a large demand for new energy vehicles. As a result, it is possible that shared car companies will “make contributions” behind the sales volume that does not fall or rise.

(Pure electric shared car)

The national supplement of the New Deal is conducive to the survival of the fittest in the market, promotes the improvement of R&D levels of enterprises, raises the technical threshold of new energy vehicles, and improves the new energy subsidies standard; as fair competition between car companies and manufacturing costs are reduced, even subsidies for new energy vehicles will be cancelled. After that, it has little impact on the new energy vehicle market, but it is more conducive to long-term healthy development. At present, the three factors of double-credit policy, subsidy policy, and limit-limit licensing policy are the keys to restricting or promoting the development of new energy vehicles.

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