Natural rubber prices forced historical high

After breaking through the landmark mark of 40,000 yuan/ton, the price of domestic natural rubber continued to “go up every day” and recently approached a historical high of 43,800 yuan/ton again.

However, contrary to the booming prices of rubber prices, Xiamen's rubber traders and tire manufacturers have incalculable hardships. At the same time, related companies have to respond to the problem: manufacturing companies try to reduce inventory and extend the Spring Festival holiday, while traders are cautious.

Many companies extend the Spring Festival holiday

Recently, the price of natural rubber in the domestic market has exceeded 43,000 yuan/ton, and just recently, natural rubber futures prices hit a record high of 43,800 yuan/ton.

“Natural rubber prices have risen so high that businesses are not doing well. It happens to happen to the Spring Festival. Many companies simply extended the Spring Festival holiday again.” Zhao Zhongmin, secretary-general of the Xiamen Plastic & Rubber Merchants Association, told the Herald reporter yesterday.

In addition to extending holidays, Xiamen's rubber-related companies also take other measures to deal with.

“In addition to some necessary orders, the manufacturing rubber companies basically do not stock raw materials, and intermediate traders are also very cautious.” Zhao Zhongmin reported to the reporter.

"The risk has come." Analyst Zhao Yongliang, an analyst at the Xiamen Plastics and Rubber Merchants Association, expressed his concern for the industry with a few simple words.

Xiamen Tire Enterprise called in the caldera

In the entire industrial chain of natural rubber, manufacturing companies are the biggest victims of natural rubber prices, and tire manufacturers are the first to suffer.

"Now it's like sizzling on the crater." A Xiamen tire company executive who does not want to publicly describe the current situation of internal and external difficulties, "At present, the domestic tire companies are basically the industry-wide losses, profits for six months Negative growth."

The fact is that although major tire companies have raised tire prices several times in the past two years, they have not been able to offset the dramatic increase in the cost of raw material prices in the face of rising raw material prices.

Statistics from the China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch show that from January to November 2010, the profits of the domestic tire industry fell by 22% year-on-year, with a loss of 26%. Xiamen's tire companies have no exception.

Plate small price easily manipulated

For the "upwards" of rubber prices, the Xiamen industry has its own interpretation. "Surely there are people who are speculating about it." With practical experience in the industry for many years, Zhao Zhongmin and Zhao Yongliang both believe that "the reality of the price of rubber at the moment is not normal."

A more reliable analysis is that "only 1 billion yuan can be used to fire up the price of natural rubber futures."

In Zhao Yongliang's view, "natural rubber seems to be a large industry, but in fact its global base is very small, it is vulnerable to the joint speculation of major consortia."

It is understood that the annual global consumption of natural rubber is about 9.5 million tons, and China's consumption of natural rubber is as high as 3 million tons a year, accounting for more than one-third of the world's total consumption.

"This pool is too small. If you add a little water, the water level will rise. If you use the original price of 30,000 yuan per ton, one billion yuan can completely control the entire domestic natural rubber market," said Zhao Yongliang.

However, Zhao Zhongmin estimated that this wave of rising prices has basically peaked. Zhao Yongliang also analyzed that the current price of natural rubber has deviated from the actual value too much, and there will inevitably be a process of value restoration. Therefore, in the short term, the possibility of touching 45,000 yuan/ton will not be ruled out, but in the long run, it will be 38,000 yuan/ton. There is a higher probability of squatting up and down the axis.

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