South freeze, drought continued agricultural product price increase expected
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According to Chen Zhenlin, spokesperson of the China Meteorological Administration, the weather in the “Southern Drought North Drought†continues. Before February 6, 2011, there was almost no precipitation in meteorological arid areas such as North China, Huanghuai, etc.; in the following two days, the above arid areas may appear locally. About 1 mm of rainfall. In February, the meteorological drought conditions in North China, Huanghuai and other places may continue or develop, and winter irrigation and anti-drought work will be required.
In addition, during the cold air gap period in February, the temperature in the southern region will gradually rise. If it encounters cold air southwards, it will be prone to rain, snow, and freezing weather. The roads, railways and transmission lines must be prepared for snow removal and deicing operations.
During the drought in the north, rain and snow and freezing weather occurred in the south. This is the unusual weather of “southern frozen north drought†that people often say in recent days.
Since October last year, precipitation in North China, Huanghuai, and Jianghuai has generally been below 50 mm, of which most of Shandong, southern Hebei, and northern Henan are less than 10 mm. As of January 28, the longest continuous non-precipitation days in northern China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, and other places reached 40 to 60 days. Some regions reached 60 to 80 days, and local areas in Henan exceeded 80 days. Due to the significantly less precipitation, there is no effective continuous precipitation for a long time, resulting in rapid development of meteorological drought in Huanghuai and North China. At present, there are meteorological droughts in the eastern and southern parts of North China, Huanghuai and other places, and most of Henan Province, most of Shandong Province, and north of Suyu have reached severe drought or extreme drought levels.
At the same time, from January 1 to 6, 10 to 11 and 16 to 21, there were three distinct low-temperature rain and snow weather events in southern China. The low-temperature rain and snow weather has the characteristics of long total process time, large temperature changes, low temperature, rain, and snow concentration. Due to the influence of low temperature, rain, and snow, the snow days in the central and northern parts of Jiangnan exceeded 10 days, and the maximum snow depth was greater than 10 cm. The freezing rain occurred in most parts of Guizhou, western and southern Hunan, northeastern Guangxi, southeastern Chongqing, northeastern Yunnan, central Jiangxi, and parts of Sichuan and Fujian. Among them, Hunan and Guizhou provinces suffered the most. Parts of the western and southern parts of Guizhou reached more than 10 days, and the thickness of wire covered with ice was 5 to 20 mm.
Chen Zhenlin told reporters that the reasons for the recent emergence of “Southern Drought and the North Drought†in China are mainly due to the following three aspects: First, the cold air that invaded China in the north is frequently active; second, the water vapor sent to the north is abnormally weak; and third, it is transported to the south. The constant flow of water vapor. The second aspect of the direct cause of long-term cold and warm air can not form an effective intersection in North China and other places in Huanghuai, resulting in the formation of drought in these areas; one, three and two reasons make the formation of favorable conditions for the effective exchange of cold and warm air in southern China, in Guangxi The provinces (regions) of Guizhou, Guizhou, and other provinces (regions) have a low temperature and freezing rain in a specific geographical environment.
Influencing the expected increase in the price increase of agricultural products The abnormal climate has inevitably caused an impact on the prices of agricultural products in China, especially the frozen weather in the south, which has directly increased the price of vegetables.
The data released by the Ministry of Commerce on January 15 showed that due to the influence of low temperature and freezing weather in the southern region on the production and transportation of winter vegetables, the price of vegetables generally increased. From January 17 to 23, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables in major and medium-sized cities in China was lower than the previous week. It rose by 12.6%, and the increase increased by 6.5 percentage points.
In terms of regions, the average wholesale prices of vegetables in Nanjing, Guiyang, Lanzhou, Wuhan, Hefei, and Ningbo rose by 31.9%, 30.0%, 29.4%, 25.2%, 23.5%, and 23.3%, respectively.
According to the statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the average price of major foods in 50 cities across the country in mid-January, 27 kinds of 29 kinds of foods monitored during the current period showed price increases in different ranges.
Among them, the increase in vegetable prices is particularly evident. Among them, the price of cucumber rose by 19.9%, which was significantly larger than the increase of 7.3% in the previous period; the increase in the price of beans was also 16.5%; the prices of rapeseed, tomatoes, and celery also rose by 10.9%, 7.7%, and 5.9% respectively.
However, for the whole year, the drought in the north has played a greater role in boosting the prices of agricultural products. From the monitoring data, it is not difficult to find that although the freezing weather in the South directly pushed up the price of vegetables, it had little effect on the prices of other agricultural products. And this extreme weather will only have a short-term effect on vegetable prices. The drought in the north is different, because it is very likely to push up the price increase of agricultural products.
Judging from the actual impact, it is hard to say how much drought affected food production. Guo Tiancai, deputy head of the Wheat Experts Group of the Ministry of Agriculture, said on January 24th that the Wheat Expert Group of the Ministry of Agriculture recently discussed the current winter wheat seedlings, and that due to the high quality of sowing and adequate soiling at the previous site preparations, the drought situation has not had a serious impact on the overwintering of wheat. The overall seedling condition is better than last year.
Moreover, from historical data, the drought in China's main wheat producing areas was even more severe in 2009. However, the overall increase in wheat production in the same year, and the unit production per unit of wheat in the main wheat producing areas also increased slightly.
“But different from 2009, the current market is full of funds, and the environment for rising commodity prices has been formed. The market speculation has been significantly higher than in 2009. In the case of foods that have almost no demand for elasticity, once there are relevant catalytic factors, It is easy to form the expected price increase.†Hua Jing United Securities analyst Zhang Jing told reporters.
Datong Securities also predicts that due to rising weather, food prices may rise by 10% this year.
Concern that the pressure of agricultural product price increases this year is not small Even if we do not talk about the abnormal weather at the beginning of the year, in fact, the pressure on China's agricultural product prices this year is not small.
Li Guoxiang, a researcher at the Institute of Rural Development of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, predicts that agricultural prices in China will continue to rise this year. In his opinion, the pressure of price increase mainly comes from four aspects:
First of all, the gap between the production and demand for food has increased. This is fundamentally caused by the inherent deficiency of natural resources in China's grain production;
Second, the food consumption structure has been upgraded. An important sign is that the food consumption of the residents tends to be stable, the consumption of oil and meat is slowly increasing, and consumption of vegetables and the like is showing a growing trend;
Thirdly, in recent years, the prices of seeds, workers' wages, and rents for rent have been increasing rapidly.
Finally, in 2011, the international agricultural product market may still be in severe fluctuations. In particular, the "Millennium-Cool" statement is widely spread throughout the world. It will further intensify the expected increase in prices of grain and other bulk agricultural products and amplify the price fluctuations of international agricultural products.
However, Li Guoxiang believes that despite the impact of factors such as cyclical fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products, the policy of increasing grain prices in the country, and the transmission of international agricultural product prices, the overall level of China's agricultural product prices will continue to rise in 2011. However, under the state's effective regulation of the agricultural product market, cyclical fluctuations in the prices of agricultural products may turn into a turning point. It is estimated that the increase in the prices of agricultural products in 2011 may be reduced.
It is worth noting that in the second half of the year, China's pork prices may usher in another rise. Western Securities recently released a report saying that the spread of cold weather and pig diseases at large areas earlier this year increased the risk of reduced supply of agricultural products during the year. The inventory of fertile sows in the past two years has been in decline. In August last year, it fell to a stage low. It takes about 13 to 14 months from the time it takes for the breeding sow to reach the pigs' slaughter, considering the price of pork. From the end of the third quarter to the following Spring Festival, there will be a seasonal increase in demand, and the risk of rising pork prices in the medium-term will intensify. It is expected that the price of pork will gradually increase after the Mid-Autumn Festival this year.
"Under the dual pressure of rising food prices and further increase in pig-to-food ratio, it is expected that the increase in pork prices will significantly exceed last year's average level," the report said.
Problems: Prolonged and long-term rise in prices of agricultural products In recent years, the issue of rising prices of agricultural products has attracted attention. What has to be said is that, overall, the rise in the prices of agricultural products in the coming years will become a trend in our country.
Chen Xiaohua, vice minister of the Ministry of Agriculture, stated at the National Agriculture Policy and Regulations Work Conference recently held that China will face huge pressure on the supply of agricultural products. He estimated that in the next five years, China will add 8 billion tons of grain, 800,000 tons of vegetable oil, and 1 million tons of meat each year.
Qian Keming, Director of the Department of Market and Economic Information of the Ministry of Agriculture, also told the media that for a long time to come, domestic and international prices of agricultural products will show a rigid upward trend, and we must gradually adapt to this trend. As consumers, we must slowly adapt to the rise in food prices.
Qian Keming believes that China should allow prices of agricultural products to increase gradually, on the basis of maintaining basic prices. This is mainly due to the fact that the overall level of agricultural product prices in China is too low to truly reflect the scarcity of resources such as cultivated land and fresh water. This is far lower than Japan and South Korea, which have similar per capita agricultural resource endowments. As a result, agricultural production efficiency has declined, and it has been difficult for farmers to increase income. The quality of agricultural products is also difficult to guarantee.
However, Qian Keming also stressed that allowing the gradual and reasonable increase of agricultural product prices should be based on maintaining the basic stability of prices. To correctly understand the relationship between the rise in agricultural product prices and the consumer price index, it is necessary to prevent the sharp rise in the unreasonable price of agricultural products, and at the same time avoid a reasonable rise in the prices of agricultural products.
Datong Securities researcher Guo Shitao told reporters that according to the National Medium- and Long-Term Plan for Food Security (2008-2020), the national grain demand in 2010 and 2020 will reach 225 billion kilograms and 572.5 billion kilograms respectively. According to the calculation of current grain production, there will be a gap between the national grain demand and the existing supply capacity. At least in the next 20 years, the rise in consumer prices driven by food prices will be a long-term trend, which is determined by the national conditions in which China’s population has to increase its cultivated land and continue to decrease.