Chemical Industry Investment Strategy in the Second Half of 2008

The chemical industry's annual growth rate is expected to be 20%.

After experiencing rapid growth in 2006 and 2007, China's chemical industry will enter a period of steady growth. Under the macro-control, the chemical industry has been periodically weakened, especially benefiting from technological upgrades, industrial restructuring and other factors, and some sub-sectors still maintain a good growth trend.

Investment strategy: Seek a safe margin under high oil prices.

We judge that the petrochemical industry chain will soon enter a stage of low prosperity after the temporary prosperity caused by high oil prices, especially the subsequent impact on the enterprises in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain will be even more serious. Therefore, under the expectation that oil prices will remain high in the future, we will endeavor to seek investment varieties with higher safety margins under high oil prices. Specifically, we will include oil product operators directly benefiting from refined product oil price adjustments, and alcohol ethers with an oil substitution advantage. LNG manufacturers and coal chemical companies.

Coal Chemicals: The future will not only be an alternative.

The continuous rise in crude oil prices has promoted the rapid development of China's coal chemical industry. Based on the energy endowment of China's “multi-coal and low-oil” energy resources, with the improvement of coal chemical technology, China’s coal chemical industry is expected to emerge as an alternative role and become a An important part of energy and chemicals.

Polyurethane: Looking forward to the next spring.

The appreciation of the renminbi, trade protection in Europe and the United States, etc., have affected the development of the polyurethane industry in China through downstream industries. However, from the perspective of long-term development, the potential demand for building energy-saving insulation and the continuous development of overseas markets will continue to support the polyurethane industry to maintain rapid growth.

Silicone: Take into account both technology and downstream.

In the first half of 2008, the operation of the organic silicon industry was stable, but the expansion of monomer production capacity is expected to be worth our attention. The grasp of core technologies and the ability to develop downstream multi-species will become the key to the survival of silicone companies.

"Triacids and two bases": The price increase comes from supply and cost factors.

As a front-end product of the chemical industry chain, triacid and alkali have certain resource product characteristics. We believe that the price rises that have been successively staged since 2007 mainly come from supply and cost factors. It is expected that the price increase momentum will be curbed under the background of slowing demand growth in the future.

Agrochemical industry: Equal emphasis on resources and technology.

The development of “oil agriculture” has played an important role in the growth of the agrochemical industry. In particular, the increase in the production of biofuels has placed higher demands on global agricultural production. In addition to potash fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer and other resource characteristics of the product is very obvious, the nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide industry in the sharing of agricultural products bull market, it should pay more attention to the cultivation of their own technological advantages.



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