Shell forecast: Fuel trucks will be fully replaced by electric vehicles in 2070
With the further development of internal combustion engine technology, the dynamic performance and manufacturing costs will be optimized. If there is no sustainable supply of fuel, it will eventually be completely replaced at some point in the future. Shell Petroleum believes that this time will be around 2070. At that time, vehicles powered by fossil fuels will completely disappear, replacing electricity and hydrogen. The sensationalist point of view is the latest report released by Shell Petroleum: The 2013 New LensScenarios. This is a long-term report plan that Royal Dutch Shell insisted for 40 years to help the company make better decisions about future developments. The first is the statistics of dependence on different energy sources in the world: two points are summed up: First, after a period of gentle rise in 2030, oil begins to gradually decline, and by 2060 it has fallen below the level of 2000; the second is natural gas. The energy status of (CNG) is gradually increasing, and by 2060 it has become the largest energy source alongside coal. Globally, with the steady development of shale gas, the price of natural gas has shown a downward trend. Especially in the automotive industry, there are unprecedented applications. Then look at the trend of dependence on auto energy, it is clear that the liquid hydrocarbon fuel from the 98% share in 2000, all the way down trend, until 2060, only 22% share. What this actually says is that the internal combustion engine fuels such as gasoline and diesel have begun to gradually withdraw from the stage of history. In contrast, the use of gaseous hydrocarbon fuels (such as natural gas) has steadily increased since 2000, peaked before and after 2050, and then began to decline from around 2060. The same is non-renewable energy, and the trend can be imagined later and it will gradually decline. From around 2030, electricity and hydrogen began to gradually take over the automotive energy market. Although many electric models and hydrogen energy models have been seen so far, they are still relatively small compared with those driven by fossil fuels. The penetration rate of electric vehicles in the North American and European markets is still relatively impressive, but hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have not gained popularity in the world. Shell Petroleum predicts that by 2070, the passenger car market will fully depart from its dependence on fossil fuels, and electric vehicles will be fully popularized. Electric vehicles mentioned here include three types of models: pure electric vehicles, such as Tesla ModelS, Nissan Leaf, Ford FocusEV, etc.; Plug-in hybrid models, which can be further subdivided into series and parallel models based on the cooperation between motors and engines. The representative model is the Chevrolet Volt. The latter's representative model is the Toyota Prius. The hydrogen fuel cell car, even though the raw material is hydrogen, is essentially driven by electricity. Shell Petroleum also pointed out that the use of liquid fossil fuels in automotive energy will reach a peak around 2035, and will gradually begin to decline. The factors include not only the depletion of oil, but also the acceleration of the process of urbanization (reducing the distance traveled), the improvement of the efficiency of automobile fuel use, and the rise of new energy (natural gas, electricity, and hydrogen). At present, both China and India are accelerating the process of urbanization and reducing the area of ​​rural areas, which is conducive to building a compact urban structure. Shell Petroleum predicts that after the compact city is completed, it will save 2,000 kilometers per person per vehicle per year. The emergence and spread of the compact urban structure has not only saved people's transportation distance, but also saved fuel consumption. At the same time, it also greatly promoted the popularity of electric vehicles. Because the current cruising range of electric vehicles is generally low, compact cities shorten the travel distance and make electric vehicles more suitable for short-haul missions. 2070 may just be a conservative estimate. With the advancing of the automobile intelligentization and electrification process, the day when the internal combustion engine withdraws from the historical stage may come earlier. The Liberal Democrats of the United Kingdom have a legislative proposal to fully popularize electric vehicles by 2040, when driving traditional fuel vehicles will be regarded as illegal. The automobile steam engine has driven the human society for more than 100 years. Now the internal combustion engine has served us for more than 100 years. The next step will be the era of electric motors. According to the working environment and long-term practice of the Engine Valve of the ship, our company's Marine Engine Valve has good high temperature mechanical properties; it has sufficient high temperature strength and hot hardness; it has high temperature corrosion resistance; it has high wear resistance and Impact resistance; good thermal conductivity and low thermal expansion coefficient. Marine Engine Valve Marine Engine Valve,Exhaust Valve,Marine Engine Flush Valve,Marine Exhaust Check Valve Hebei Zhonghai Shipping Accessories Manufacturing Co., Ltd. , http://www.zhonghaiship.com