Why does the Chinese auto market always go against the international market?

Engaged in the automotive industry reporting work for 28 years, using a popular approach to analyze the truth of the facts, using human brushstrokes to awaken people's thinking.

Contrary to the sluggish growth of the domestic sales market, which only increased by 3.35%, automobile exports surged in the first half of this year, an increase of up to 56.99%, and in particular, the export volume of passenger cars that had previously accounted for a small proportion of the total was doubled. According to the relevant person in charge, this year's exports are expected to surpass the record high of 644,000 vehicles in 2008 and record highs. However, this year's increase was significant, which was related to the smaller base caused by the sharp drop in exports in the previous two years. In addition, compared with the caliber, from January to May, China’s auto products had a total of 389,300 imports, 298,700 exports, 28,851 million US dollars worth of imports, and US$24,885 million worth of exports. The total amount and amount have a huge deficit, and China’s autos The proportion of total vehicle exports to total production and sales is only 3%, and the products exported are all in the low-end market, and the markets facing them are mostly less-developed countries and regions.

I remember that in 2005, China’s automobile trade achieved a trade surplus for the first time. At that time, the export volume of vehicles in China's auto industry was not only small, but also the bicycles were cheap, and most of them did not make money. Out of jealousy, I once wrote the article "when it is also anti-dumping against Chinese cars."

In 2008, a global financial crisis triggered by the United States changed the global automobile pattern. The US, Europe and Japan markets plummeted. China accidentally made the world’s largest auto market, but the sluggish international auto market has also greatly dampened China. The car's exit. In 2009, China’s domestic auto market soared by 47%, but its exports were “volatility in volume and price”. The total vehicle exports were 370,700 units, a decrease of 44.7% year-on-year, and the export value was US$5.193 billion, a decrease of 42.6% year-on-year, and the decline was nearly half.

In 2010, China’s domestic autos continued to maintain rapid growth. Although the export situation was “reversed”, it still did not return to its pre-2008 state. In the first half of this year, the international automobile market generally recovered. The US, Germany, and South Korea’s production and sales volume and new car registrations both increased by about 10%, while our domestic market had only a growth rate of 3.35%, but exports had increased significantly. The analysis of data in the past two years shows that the Chinese auto market and the international market have changed in the opposite direction: the international market has plummeted, and the Chinese domestic market has skyrocketed; the international market has recovered, the Chinese domestic market has been sluggish, and the Chinese market has changed against the international market. However, the substantial increase in exports is basically a positive change with the international market.

This shows that the Chinese auto market is not in line with the international market. There is a bit of "self-drinking and singing". The reason is that our market is greatly affected by human factors. To a large extent, it is a "policy market" and it is easy to ups and downs. In general, there will be great ups and downs. No matter whether it is big or big, it will hurt the industry.

As far as macroeconomics is concerned, China’s economy is incompletely a market economy and policy interventions are frequent. Banks are like the treasury of the Ministry of Finance and are completely obedient to the government. Looking at the United States, it took billions of dollars to protect GM from bankruptcy. It was only passed through the parliamentary debate, and China’s investment of 4 trillion yuan was decided without the discussion of the National People’s Congress. The Chinese government's advantages of quick decision-making and high efficiency are clearly seen by everyone. We often love to say that what we have done in 100 years has been completed in 10 years. However, this kind of rapid decision-making does not all have a positive effect. The ups and downs alone have caused the industry to suffer a lot. It seems that the Chinese auto industry cannot blindly pursue the development speed.