Beijing, December 22 (Reporter Zhang Yi) — According to a forecast from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center, as China’s economy continues to grow and living standards improve, more people are now able to afford cars. This has led to a significant increase in domestic car demand, which is expected to keep growing rapidly over the next two decades. As a result, China's auto market is entering a phase of sustained, high-speed development.
During the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" period, especially after China joined the World Trade Organization, the auto market experienced rapid expansion. It marked the beginning of widespread private car ownership and positioned China as the world's third-largest consumer car market.
Before the 1990s, the Chinese auto market was dominated by official vehicles. Around 70% of car demand came from government and public institutions, while only 30% was for commercial vehicles. Private car ownership was virtually nonexistent. From 1990 to 2000, the share of official cars declined, while commercial and private car purchases began to rise. After China joined the WTO at the end of 2001, increased competition, new model launches, and falling prices accelerated the shift toward private car ownership. By 2003, private car sales were estimated to have surpassed 70% of the total market, a trend that has continued to grow.
Globally, when a country's auto market transitions to private car ownership, it typically signals a period of rapid growth. Private car demand is far greater than that for official or commercial vehicles, offering excellent opportunities for China's auto industry. Analysts predict that over the next 20 years, China will see continued growth driven by personal vehicle demand. The proportion of private cars is expected to rise further, with the early 2000s marking the start of mass car ownership in households. Passenger and commercial vehicle markets are projected to reach saturation around 2015. In the next decade, China is expected to become a major global car consumer, with annual car demand exceeding 10 million units.
As the domestic auto market expands and matures, and as Chinese automakers enhance their innovation capabilities, consolidate through mergers, and benefit from a better market and consumer environment, the industry is set for long-term growth. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period and beyond, the automotive sector will continue to develop rapidly and eventually become a key pillar of the national economy.
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